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Download Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering by Wolfgang Fellin (auth.), a.o. Univ.-Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr. PDF

By Wolfgang Fellin (auth.), a.o. Univ.-Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr. Wolfgang Fellin, em. Univ.-Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Heimo Lessmann, a.o. Univ.-Prof. Dr. Michael Oberguggenberger, Dipl.-Ing. Robert Vieider (eds.)

This quantity addresses the problem of uncertainty in civil engineering from layout to development. mess ups do happen in perform. Attributing them to a residual method danger or a defective execution of the undertaking doesn't effectively disguise the variety of motives. a better scrutiny of the followed layout, the engineering version, the information, the soil-construction-interaction and the version assumptions is needed. frequently, the uncertainties in preliminary and boundary stipulations are ample. present engineering perform frequently leaves those matters apart, even though new medical instruments were built some time past a long time that let a rational description of uncertainties of all types, from version uncertainty to information uncertainty. it's the goal of this quantity to have a serious examine present engineering hazard techniques that allows you to bring up understanding of uncertainty in numerical computations, shortcomings of a strictly probabilistic security thought, geotechnical types of failure mechanisms and their implications for building administration, execution, and the juristic query of accountability. additionally, a few of the new systems for modelling uncertainty are defined. The publication is end result of the a collaborate attempt of mathematicians, engineers and building managers who met on a regular basis in a put up graduate seminar on the collage of Innsbruck in past times years.

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Extra resources for Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering

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5 There is some discussion in the literature, but no decisive conclusion, what distribution is appropriate for the friction coefficient. We consider some of those that have been proposed. Normal distribution: The simplest and most common choice is the Gaussian normal distribution ν ∼ (µν , σν2 ), with the estimations µν = ν¯ and σν2 = s2ν . This distribution has the disadvantage that the friction coefficient can be negative, which is physically impossible. Though this happens only with low probability, a better choice may be the following lognormal distribution with two parameters, which is strictly non-negative.

1 is used, that is a 90% confidence interval. 7 Fig. 3. Fits, cumulative distribution functions interval. 09. 454. 2 Spatial and local variation We mention briefly the well-known geotechnical spatial versus local variation problem. On the one hand the strength of the material cannot be measured exactly at each point, and on the other hand the soil is usually spatially inhomogeneous. Both effects contribute to the variability of the data. For the sake of simplicity we assume in this example tan ϕ to be homogeneously distributed in space, but otherwise a random variable with statistical fluctuations.

In addition, the uncertainty models need correspondence rules themselves, that is, well-defined semantics. There is one more aspect to be taken into account, and that is how the information on the uncertainty of different parameters is combined – this refers to the 52 Michael Oberguggenberger axiomatics of the underlying approach. For example, in a sum A + B of two parameters A and B, will the joint uncertainty be the smallest interval containing all realizations a+b, or do we believe that extreme combinations of realizations a+b are less probable than those near the standard values?

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